A party in meltdown

It is interesting to watch the current ructions within the Labour party. I am old enough to remember the mid-90s, when the Conservatives similarly lost all sense of perspective, but the difference here, and it's important, is that the Conservatives were at that point living on borrowed time. Neil Kinnock had handed them the '92 election on a plate, in the depths of a recession, two years after a damaging leadership contest, and they couldn't quite believe their luck. By 1995, they had descended into bickering, carping, backbiting and general self-destruction. Then, in 1997, after 18 years in office they were annihilated in the general election.

Gordon Brown, in contrast, became Labour leader (and thereby automatically Prime Minister, rather like John Major in 1990) a little over a year ago, ten years into Labour's time in office. Now, he is so spectacularly unpopular that there are rumblings of leadership contests. He has, correctly, sacked the minor party officials (enjoying their fifteen minutes of fame) who have been making public comments on the subject, but the effect is to make him seem more isolated.

Some have been predicting Gordon Brown's catastrophic decline for some time. Matthew Parris, in particular, gave warning of this well before Gordon actually became Labour leader. There are still those who believe Labour can come back from their woeful poll standings if they choose another leader. They are fantasists. Labour will lose the next general election, and they will lose it badly. And because it's hard to change a Labour leader while they're in office, and because even David Milliband isn't daft enough to take the poisoned chalice now, they'll most likely lose with Gordon Brown at the helm.